Why bayesian “evidence for H1” in one condition and bayesian “evidence for H0” in another condition does not mean good-enough bayesian evidence for a difference between the conditions

Psychologists are often interested in whether an independent variable has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the effect of that variable in the two conditions (i.e., test the interaction). Yet many researchers tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a nonsignificant test in the other condition, deeming this as sufficient evidence for a difference between the two conditions. In this Tutorial, we aim to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cutoffs to draw conclusions. For instance, some researchers might falsely conclude that there must be good-enough evidence for the interaction if they find good-enough Bayesian evidence for the alternative hypothesis, H1, in condition A and good-enough Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis, H0, in condition B. The case study we introduce highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the direct comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny app that can be used with a 2 × 2 design to develop intuitions on this issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design

Setting Priorities for Space Research: Opportunities and Imperatives

This report represents the first phase of a study by a task group convened by the Space Studies Board to ascertain whether it should attempt to develop a methodology for recommending priorities among the various initiatives in space research (that is, scientific activities concerned with phenomena in space or utilizing observations from space). The report argues that such priority statements by the space research community are both necessary and desirable and would contribute to the formulation and implementation of public policy. The report advocates the establishment of priorities to enhance effective management of the nation's scientific research program in space. It argues that scientific objectives and purposes should determine how and under what circumstances scientific research should be done. The report does not take a position on the controversy between advocates of manned space exploration and those who favor the exclusive use of unmanned space vehicles. Nor does the report address questions about the value or appropriateness of Space Station Freedom or proposals to establish a permanent manned Moon base or to undertake a manned mission to Mars. These issues lie beyond the charge to the task group

Recycling bins, garbage cans or think tanks? Three myths regarding policy analysis institutes

The phrase 'think tank' has become ubiquitous – overworked and underspecified – in the political lexicon. It is entrenched in scholarly discussions of public policy as well as in the 'policy wonk' of journalists, lobbyists and spin-doctors. This does not mean that there is an agreed definition of think tank or consensual understanding of their roles and functions. Nevertheless, the majority of organizations with this label undertake policy research of some kind. The idea of think tanks as a research communication 'bridge' presupposes that there are discernible boundaries between (social) science and policy. This paper will investigate some of these boundaries. The frontiers are not only organizational and legal; they also exist in how the 'public interest' is conceived by these bodies and their financiers. Moreover, the social interactions and exchanges involved in 'bridging', themselves muddy the conception of 'boundary', allowing for analysis to go beyond the dualism imposed in seeing science on one side of the bridge, and the state on the other, to address the complex relations between experts and public policy

The management of ocular allergy in community pharmacies in the United Kingdom

Background Ocular allergies frequently present in pharmacy practices. However, research into the actual management of ocular allergy in pharmacies is lacking. Objective To determine and quantify history and symptom questioning of a patient with presumed allergic conjunctivitis and management strategies employed by pharmacy staff in the UK. Method A mystery shopper technique was used to simulate an episode of allergic conjunctivitis in 100 community pharmacies across the UK. Results The mean number of questions asked by pharmacy staff to the patient was 3.5 ± 2.6, with a range of 0-10. The most common question was whether the patient had a history of allergies (45 %).Ninety-one percent advised on treatment, with the remaining 9 % directly referring to the patient's general practitioner (n = 4) or pharmacist(n = 4), but only two to their optometrist. The most common treatment suggested was sodium cromoglycate 2 % (50 %). However, many pharmacies advising treatment did not ask the patient's age (37 %), if they wore contact lenses (43 %), or gave dosage advice (43 %). Only 5 % of pharmacies advised follow up and 14 % suggested visiting a general practitioner and 1 % an optometrist if symptoms did not resolve with treatment. Conclusion There is a need for improved ophthalmological training for pharmacy staff with respect to the management of allergic conjunctivitis. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Towards the integration of functions, relations and types in an AI programming language

This paper describes the design and implementation of the programming language PC-Life. This language integrates the functional and the Logic-oriented programming style and feature types supporting inheritance. This combination yields a language particularly suited to knowledge representation, especially for application in computational linguistics

Psychological and Environmental Correlates of HPA Axis Functioning in Parentally Bereaved Children: Preliminary Findings

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/97514/1/jts21788.pd

Diagnostic accuracy of Doppler ultrasound technique of the penile arteries in correlation to selective arteriography

In 63% of 265 patients with erectile dysfunction a relevant arterial inflow disturbance was found by Doppler ultrasound examination. Correlation between Doppler and arteriography in 58 patients showed an accuracy of 95% in detecting penile arteries and an accuracy of 91% in discovering a pathological arterial pattern (arterial anomaly or arteriosclerotic obstruction). In 15 patients the arterial inflow was measured additionally by Doppler ultrasound technique after intracavernosal injection of vasoactive drugs (IIVD) (7.5 mg papaverine and 0.25 mg phentolamine). This technique proved to be more reliable than in the flaccid state and markedly facilitated localization and assessment of pathological changes of the cavernosal arteries

A framework for models of movement in geographic space

This article concerns the theoretical foundations of movement informatics. We discuss general frameworks in which models of spatial movement may be developed. In particular, the article considers the object–field and Lagrangian–Eulerian dichotomies, and the SNAP/SPAN ontologies of the dynamic world, and classifies the variety of informatic structures according to these frameworks. A major challenge is transitioning between paradigms. Usually data is captured with respect to one paradigm but can usefully be represented in another. We discuss this process in formal terms and then describe experiments that we performed to show feasibility. It emerges that observational granularity plays a crucial role in these transitions